If recent history counts for anything, St Kilda should be confident going into the clash with Carlton on Saturday night.

The Saints have taken the honours on the last four occasions the sides have met, and have an even more impressive record against the Blues stretching back to round one, 2002. St Kilda has beaten Carlton 16 times from their 18 meetings in that period.

Saints fans will fondly remember the most recent win – round seven’s Monday night clash where Jack Steven starred, collecting a career-high 39 possessions, 19 of which were contested. Nick Riewoldt was another of St Kilda’s best that night, kicking three goals from his 25 possessions and 13 marks.

While Riewoldt is a certainty to play this week, there is some doubt over Carlton’s key forward, Jarrad Waite. Waite and Riewoldt have met on eight occasions throughout their careers, with statistics showing the Saints skipper has been the more influential forward in their meetings so far.
 

It’s a similar story when comparing the two sides’ midfield leaders. Lenny Hayes has proven to be far more influential than Chris Judd during their 13 meetings – which include a number of games where Judd was playing for West Coast.

It’s difficult to find a statistical measure that suggests how things will unfold from a coaching perspective, seeing as Scott Watters has only coached against his former-mentor Mick Malthouse just once. Admittedly, Malthouse had a good record against the Saints prior to arriving at Carlton this season. The Saints hadn’t beaten a Malthouse-coached side in the last five meetings before this year, though there was one draw in that time – the 2010 Grand Final.

Saturday’s contest will be a vastly different affair, with both the Saints and Malthouse’s new side playing a far more attacking brand of football than they did a few years back.

Expect both sides to take plenty of chances when moving the ball forward; St Kilda and Carlton rank first and second respectively in running bounces this season. Both sides are led in this statistic by dashing half-backs – Saint Dylan Roberton and Blue Andrew Walker have had the equal third-most bounces in 2013.

While Etihad Stadium’s closed roof and dry surface will suit those who enjoy taking the game on, Saturday night’s match is also likely to be a physical contest. Scott Watters was pleased with his players’ increased tackling effort last weekend, but their pressure will need to be at its best to match Carlton’s. The Blues have averaged more than 70 tackles per game in the last month, but haven’t been able to get any reward for their physical pressure, losing all four matches.

If the Saints are able to match the Blues’ pressure, and break even in clearances and inside 50s, they may have an edge in the forward line. St Kilda ranks in the top eight in goal-kicking efficiency, while only four sides have a worse efficiency percentage than Carlton this year. In what shapes as a fairly even contest, the result may well rest in favour of the side that’s able to make the most of its chances.