If a week is a long time in footy, then two weeks – in lockdown for Victorians – has felt like an eternity. 

Nine years waiting for a finals berth… that’s something else entirely.

But Saturday’s elimination final against the Western Bulldogs is almost here.

Elimination Final 1

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Saturday 3 October
Gabba, 4:40pm AEST

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Last time we met…

Round 2, 2020
Sunday 14 June
Marvel Stadium

St Kilda 14.4 (88) def. Western Bulldogs 7.7 (49)

The Saints came out swinging following the 11-week season shutdown, securing their first win of the season with a vigorous 39-point win at a cavernous Marvel Stadium.

Brett Ratten’s men slotted 11 of its 14 goals after quarter-time and were particularly impressive through their sleek end-to-end plays and potency on the counter-attack.

ST KILDA  3.1  7.3  12.4  14.4 (88)
WESTERN BULLDOGS  2.4  3.4  5.6  7.7 (49)

GOALS
St Kilda: Billings 3, Butler 2, King 2, Jones, Lonie, Steele, Hannebery, Marshall, Hind, Membrey
Western Bulldogs: Vandermeer, Naughton, Wallis, Dunkley, Macrae, Richards, Williams

The standouts...

Zak Jones (29 disposals, six clearances) and Jack Billings (24 disposals, three goals) were the clear standouts at Marvel Stadium as the red, white and black clicked into gear.

The former Swan’s grunt on the inside revved up the midfield as Paddy Ryder’s clean tapwork (28 hit-outs, 15 to advantage) afforded the Saints every opportunity to inflict damage from the centre bounce.

Dan Butler was equally influential with two electric goals, Jade Gresham was productive with 25 disposals, five clearances and over 400 metres gained, while Jarryn Geary played a crucial role in shutting down the dangerous Jason Johannisen.

Midfield duo Bailey Smith (29 disposals) and Josh Dunkley (27 disposals, eight tackles) were best afield for their side, but had no answer to correct the Dogs’ low scoring for the second straight game.

Skipper Marcus Bontempelli was limited by Seb Ross throughout the afternoon but ensured his reliability when moving forward (24 disposals, five inside-50s), as did Patrick Lipinski (22 disposals) who was clean during the Bulldogs’ offensive chains.

Moment of the match…

Dan Butler’s immaculate front-and-centre – complete with a Moses-inspired parting of a sea of Bulldogs – had him off to the races and speeding towards goal, before Jack Billings rightly marked on the goal line to further the Saints’ early lead.

The September record…

The Saints and Bulldogs have met four times in finals, with the ledger currently sitting at 2-2.

Footscray had the wood over St Kilda in the 1961 and 1992 semi-finals, before back-to-back preliminary final triumphs in 2009 and 2010 left the red, white and black daring to dream.

Finals flashback…

Loose ball, guess who?

The ins and outs...

The Saints have welcomed back Zak Jones from his hamstring strain last fortnight, with the No. 3 returning for Josh Battle (foot soreness).

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have made no changes and have named Round 18 injured pair Aaron Naughton and Mitch Wallis.

The three keys…

Shut down the Bulldogs’ run: 

It’s no secret the Bulldogs love their fast, offensive handball movement through the middle of the ground. Luke Beveridge’s men sit first in the league for handballs and second for uncontested possessions, using their swift transitions and hard running patterns to find space and exploit opposition defences.

The Saints have two viable options to combat the Dogs’ blazing ball movement: deprivation or aggravation. Taking the sting out of the game through slower play and controlled possession has the potential to starve the opposition of their frenetic characteristics. On the other hand, the ‘fighting fire with fire’ approach proved effective in Round 2 and spelled numerous end-to-end goals for the red, white and black.

No matter which tactic is employed, constricting the Bulldogs’ handball game will be critical in determining the result.

Use the dual-ruck combination to advantage:

The first instance of St Kilda’s two-pronged ruck pairing at its damaging best came against the Bulldogs back in June. Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall monstered the hit-out count 48-12, with the former predominantly handling the centre bounces against the young Tim English.

English’s strength lies in his elite mobility and endurance, which has tested the very best in the league and proved that the hit-out count isn’t the only measure that defines a ruckman. But Ryder and Marshall are more than capable of covering territory themselves, especially when floating into attack.

Forcing the young English to follow into the forward-50 and making him accountable to defend could give the Saints an extra advantage on Saturday, particularly with the Marshall-Ryder combination contributing 21 goals between them this season; the most of any ruck pairing by some margin.

Dry up the Bulldogs’ midfield goalkickers:

The Western Bulldogs’ midfield remains its most dangerous asset for several reasons, but particularly through its ability to hold their own in attack and hit the scoreboard.

From their past five games, almost half of their 49 goals have come from major on-ballers, with forwards All-Australian selection Marcus Bontempelli (four goals) and ruckman Tim English (five) bolstering the Dogs’ offensive. Tom Liberatore, Bailey Smith and Lachie Hunter have also contributed over the past five weeks with a combined seven goals.

Dry up the midfield’s goalkicking and the ownness falls on the returning Mitch Wallis – the Bulldogs’ leading goalkicker for 2020 – and Aaron Naughton to make up the bulk of their score. Key forward Josh Bruce has also been quiet with just one goal between Rounds 13 and 18.

The Dogs’ dangermen…

Defence:

All-Australian defender Caleb Daniel may be small in stature, but packs a sizeable punch thanks to his composure and first-rate field kicking from of the back half. The 24-year-old sits in the top-10 for effective kicks this season league-wide and operates a shade under 80 per cent efficiency by foot.

Others to watch: Jason Johannisen, Bailey Williams

Midfield:

While it’s easy to point the finger at the skipper, Jack Macrae is a pivotal part of the Bulldogs’ engine room through his handballing and accumulation of uncontested footy. This season, the All-Australian prime-mover has averaged 26 disposals (15 handballs) and generated plenty of outside run to chain up his side’s lightning-quick transitions through the centre.

Others to watch: Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter

Forward:

The Dogs’ leading goalkicker and a consistent presence up forward, Mitch Wallis will certainly be a player for the Saints to keep tabs on. Strong from a set shot and better on the run, the crafty forward might be on Ben Paton’s radar come Saturday afternoon.

Others to watch: Aaron Naughton

On the injury front…

Josh Battle will miss Saturday’s elimination final with foot soreness, but is expected to be available the following week should the Saints secure a win.

Small forward Jack Lonie was given the green light to play after a medial complaint from Round 18 against GWS, while the returning Zak Jones comes in untroubled after missing St Kilda’s last game with a minor hamstring strain.

Bulldogs Aaron Naughton (cheekbone) and Mitch Wallis (shoulder) have confirmed their availability after injuries sustained against Fremantle last fortnight.